The past week saw Boris Johnson become leader of the Tories and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. His first speech as PM outside 'No 10' on Wednesday was reminiscent of the kind of positive energy that Winston Churchill exuded when he was Prime Minister in the 1940's.
Churchill took control of a bruised & battered United Kingdom during the dark days of World War II when its war-stricken people were pessimistic about the prospects of the Allies defeating the Axis powers, but Churchill never faltered, and his insistence on being optimistic and not losing hope led to his soaring popularity after the UK successfully pushed back against the Nazis.
It's no secret that Boris Johnson idolizes Churchill, and emulates him in many respects - particularly in being unorthodox in the ways of statesmanship. Johnson articulately channeled his admiration and veneration for Churchill's optimism through his speech on Wednesday:
"And so I am standing before you today to tell you, the British people, that those critics are wrong.
The doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters - they are going to get it wrong again.
The people who bet against Britain are going to lose their shirts, because we are going to restore trust in our democracy and we are going to fulfil the repeated promises of Parliament to the people and come out of the EU on October 31, no ifs or buts."
Johnson went on to say:
"And don't forget that in the event of a no deal outcome, we will have the extra lubrication of the £39 billion, and whatever deal we do we will prepare this autumn for an economic package to boost British business and to lengthen this country's lead as the number one destination in this continent for overseas investment.
And to all those who continue to prophesy disaster, I say yes - there will be difficulties, though I believe that with energy and application they will be far less serious than some have claimed."
Despite Boris Johnson's exuberant message, many are asking how serious he actually is. After all, he is constantly ridiculed and derided as some sort of clown. What does Boris Johnson as Prime Minister mean for Brexit, and also for the United Kingdom (if and) after it officially extricates itself from the clutches of the European Union for good?
Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party and perhaps the most vocal adversary of the European Union, despite having wished Boris Johnson well, is ultimately skeptical of Johnson's commitment to ensuring that the United Kingdom leaves for good on the 31st of October 2019.
In Farage's eyes, Johnson remains a career politician and intrinsically tied to the Establishment that he has spent the greater part of his life railing against. Farage's doubts are buttressed by Johnson's flip-flopping in the past on certain issues. Johnson wrote two articles - one in favour of Remain, and one in favour of Leave, before the 2016 Brexit Referendum. As such, Farage's skepticism is not entirely unfounded.
Farage's concerns, no doubt shared by many, poses a pertinent question for Boris Johnson: "To Be or To Do?"
Is Boris Johnson's duty towards ensuring the UK leaves on the 31st of October hindered by his (apparent) ties to the Establishment, or perhaps - by his ambition/personal goals? It's popular knowledge that BoJo's boyhood dream was to become Prime Minister, and now that he's finally Prime Minister - is he going to do anything to cling on to power now that he's finally got it, even at the expense of betraying the mandate upon which he was chosen to be Prime Minister to fulfil?
Boris Johnson was made the Tory leader because he's the only one in the Party right now with the testicular fortitude to stand up to the bureaucrats from Brussels. Bestowed with this great honour, only time will tell if the Tories made the right choice, but if one is to be judged by actions and not just words, then Boris Johnson is clearly answering the "To Be or To Do?" question in the latter as evidenced by his radical overhauling of the Cabinet and placing hard Brexiteers in key positions in his administration.
As Robert Peston puts it succinctly on Twitter:
.@BorisJohnson and Dominic Cummings have organised a comprehensive Vote Leave takeover of government. This is the most ruthless reshaping of an administration I have ever witnessed. It is focussed on the sole aim of delivering Brexit by 31 October. And probably fighting...
— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 24, 2019
autumn general election.
— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 24, 2019
Sajid Javid, a Brexiteer (though having backed 'Remain' under dubious circumstances in 2016, but has since come out as a firm Leaver) and former Managing Director of Deutsche Bank, has been made Finance Minister. His primary role is to steer the UK economy through the coming tumultuous months. Javid is a great choice as he clearly has an intimate understanding of the financial world as acknowledged by Iain Anderson, executive chairman of Cicero, a company that has represented FTSE 100 firms. Javid has also carefully planned "an emergency budget that would include tax cuts for businesses and individuals" in the event of a no-deal Brexit in order to re-balance the economy. As Home Secretary under May, Javid fiercely opposed the ridiculous Irish Backstop protocol which was part of Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement (clearly intended to make a mockery of the Brexit referendum) by proposing a digital border instead which uses "Swiss-style technology to manage trade and tariffs and so avoid a hard border in Ireland."
Also worthy of mention is Jacob Rees-Mogg, an affable Victorian Tradcon and hard-line Brexiteer, who has been made Leader of the House of Commons. Jacob Rees-Mogg has accumulated a cult following over the years for his unwavering commitment to the Brexit campaign, and he has done a tremendous job in bringing the knowledge of the perils associated with remaining within the European project to the forefront of public discourse. If there's any one who deserves a promotion from a backbench MP to Leader of the House of Commons, it's Jacob Rees-Mogg.
To further dispel concerns that he is all talk and no action, Boris Johnson has also made preparations for a no-deal Brexit through other several significant appointments.
Firstly, by appointing Dominic Raab as Foreign Secretary, who is equally serious about seeing October 31st through, as evidenced by his comment that he would be in favour of suspending parliament, if forced to, to push through a no-deal Brexit, and secondly, by assigning Michael Gove with the important task of "preparing the country for a no deal departure, if necessary" and appointing him as a Cabinet Enforcer to oversee this.
Additionally, Jonathan Isaby makes a good point about Johnson's commitment to leaving on the 31st of October:
Significant that Boris Johnson says the UK will not nominate a new European Commissioner (who would serve if the UK were still in the EU as of 1st November). Nails the point that he is absolutely serious about the 31st October deadline.
— Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) July 25, 2019
This radical overhauling of the Cabinet and appointment of hard Brexiteers in the government can only mean one thing, Johnson is gearing up for war. If Johnson manages to negotiate a good deal with Brussels - fine and dandy. This is unlikely though, as the EU would look weak, and as it stands, many of its Member States are already losing faith in the European Project (i.e. Hungary, Poland). It's more of a probability that UK would leave on a no-deal basis. What this entails, then, is a Parliament (currently stacked with Remainers) trying to sabotage Johnson's attempts to see a no-deal Brexit through.
Johnson knows this full well, which is why by appointing a far-from-moderate Cabinet, a General Election is inevitable. BoJo needs to call for a General Election if he wants to solidify a hold on the policies that he wishes to implement in the coming months. This begs the question: if BoJo were to really be self-serving and more engrossed in the limelight that comes along with being Prime Minister, he wouldn't be putting himself in this risky position where he could potentially lose his job in the coming months and looking terrible as a result would he? Based on this, I think BoJo is more interested in getting the job done and done good, rather than being PM for the sake of being PM. Let's hope he sees this through, because if he does, he will be remembered as being one of the more audacious & bold Prime Ministers of our time.
To help him with this, Johnson has named Dominic Cummings as his Special Advisor. This is one of the smartest moves Boris Johnson has undertaken thus far. Cummings is a shrewd strategist who harbours little interest in conventional politics and more enthusiasm for upending the Establishment (an interesting contrast seeing as to how BoJo is seen by many to be part of the Establishment) through a disruptive process.
Cummings was the genius architect and "mad scientist" behind the "Vote Leave" campaign in 2016, and was integral to Brexit being made a reality. He's also a highly intelligent individual with an unconventional but deeply insightful take on the issues plaguing British society. His emphasis on "what works" and "what doesn't" and his approach towards governance coming from a more "engineering" perspective rather than a value-centric one is going to assist Boris Johnson greatly as Prime Minister. However, as a friend of mine put it, "systems don't take kindly to those trying to change them" and there's a possibility he might be pushed out eventually. For the time being, having an anti-Establishment disruptor who utilizes and harnesses data and technology more than manifesto platitudes and plain political rhetoric is certainly going to be interesting to watch.
Also extremely helpful to BoJo's cause with regards to a General Election is his appointment of Priti Patel to the position of Secretary of State for the Home Department. Priti Patel, an unapologetic Thatcherite known for her "tough on crime" stance, focuses mainly on law and order issues which are close to the heart of the electorate at a time when crime rates in England & Wales are soaring, all this in tandem with BoJo's plans to recruit 20,000 new police officers to make streets safer.
Beyond Brexit, what's the UK under Boris Johnson, the former Mayor of London, going to look like?
The record speaks for itself:
"His stint as Mayor of London, by contrast, was a triumph. He cut the murder rate in half, reduced traffic fatalities, embarked on an ambitious house-building program, introduced a popular rent-a-bike scheme and presided over the barn-stormingly successful 2012 London Olympics."
To re-affirm this point, let's look at the data provided by YouGov.com:
"His approval rating has been remarkably consistent during his second term as Mayor, since 2012, and has been drastically higher than most national politicians' throughout. In hindsight, the majority of Londoners (52%) say he has done a good job, while 29% say he hasn't performed well."
Johnson does have immense experience managing one of the world's most important global cities and largest financial centres, and that should translate well into his current role, especially after the Brexit issue finally abates.
All in all, Johnson is taking a huge gamble here by preparing for a no-deal Brexit and gearing up for a General Election soon after. Even if he fails, he gets my utmost respect for at least having the balls "to do" rather than just "to be".
P.S. I didn't discuss the merits of Brexit here as I have already provided my thoughts on it.
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