by Daryl Dominic Tan
For the uninitiated, the United States Congress (the body responsible for making laws A.K.A the Legislature) is made up of two houses: The Lower House, known as the 'House of Representatives', and the Upper House, known as the 'Senate'.
To break it down simply: the Democrats have won the House for the first time in eight years, unseating 26 Republican incumbents, while the Republicans have retained majority of the Senate, winning 4 extra seats (Florida, Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri).
What does all this mean, and what are the likely implications of the Democrats having taken the House and the Republicans retaining the Senate?
Firstly, the House of Representatives controls the purse strings of the government, and any legislative agenda that involves the need to raise revenue will be under the watchful eye of a now Democratic-majority House of Representatives. This essentially means that the Democrats can and will effectively stonewall Trump's efforts to implement policies that they disagree with. It's likely that Trump, for instance, won't be able to do much in terms of domestic policy for the next 2 years (not counting Executive Orders), and his wall on the Mexican border is unlikely to become a reality anytime soon.
Furthermore, the House of Representatives can subpoena Trump's tax returns, scrutinize his finances, conduct investigations, and even launch impeachment proceedings - the single most important agenda of the Democrats since day one.
How will all this hold up in practice though? Let's not forget that while impeachment proceedings begin in the House, Article I, Section 3, Clause 6 of the United States of America Constitution grants to the Senate "the sole Power to try all Impeachments". Therefore, while the House can begin impeachment proceedings, it needs the Senate's support for these proceedings to actually get anywhere. With the Senate still controlled by the Republicans, this is extremely unlikely. Any hope of impeaching President Trump is therefore unfounded.
While the House has the power to block Trump's policies in Congress, Trump clearly retains certain advantages by having a Republican-controlled Senate, such as the likelihood of having his appointees to executive and judicial branch posts confirmed.
After what transpired during Justice Brett Kavanaugh's hearing, the Democrats are pissed about failing to take the Senate, but they are contending with the fact that they have at least taken the House. If the Democrats had won the Senate, then today's events would be more of the Blue "Wave" the Progressives have been raving about.
What concerns do this raise for the Democrats for the next 2 years? I believe the biggest concern is The Supreme Court of the United States. The two oldest members of the Supreme Court, Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg (who turns 85 this year), and Stephen Breyer (who turns 80 this year), clearly liberals, should hope to outlast Trump's presidency. If any of them retires during these two years, or God forbid, something terrible happens to them, President Trump can easily appoint another conservative Justice and what this essentially means, by having a Republican-controlled Senate, is a Supreme Court stacked with conservative Justices (not that I have a problem with it) for a very long period of time - the ultimate nightmare for Democrats.
Having a Senate which backs the President also allows him to make Treaties as Article II, section 2 of the Constitution provides that the president "shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two-thirds of the Senators present concur".
Next, we look at what the implications are of the results of the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections on future races and particularly the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, as well as some key takeaways and concerns regarding this Midterms. I'm going to tackle these issues under various headings.
FLORIDA
Florida is a perennial "swing state", making it an extremely important state during an election cycle. A "swing state" is a state that could very easily be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate, as opposed to a state such as Texas (easily predicted to vote Republican) or California (easily predicted to vote Democrat).
Florida played a decisive role in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election which saw George W. Bush clinch the presidency from Democratic contender, Al Gore, and played an equally decisive role in 2016 when President Trump won Hillary Clinton. As such, the political events in Florida at any given time can be somewhat taken as a glimpse into the future. Since the fate of a presidential election in the United States is highly dependent on Florida, the political outcome of Florida in a Midterm Election is indicative (though not conclusive) of how its citizens are likely to vote in the near future.
This brings us to the gubernatorial race between outgoing Tallahassee Mayor and progressive darling, Andrew Gillum, and loyal Trump supporter and former Congressman, Ron DeSantis. This was viewed by many to be one of the more important races of this year's Midterm Election, even though it didn't involve the Senate or the House, because it was clearly a symbolic fight with regards to how the people of Florida felt about the incumbent president. In the end, DeSantis came out on top, though by a very slim margin.
To add salt to the wound of the Democrats, Rick Scott, a Republican and former governor of Florida unseated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the United State Senate election, thus joining Junior Republican Senator for Florida, Marco Rubio, in the Upper House, effectively turning Florida "Red". This gives us a glimpse into how Floridians are likely to vote in 2020, and this prospect should scare the Democrats.
TEXAS
Conversely, what should concern Republicans is that a traditionally "Red" state like Texas was almost flipped "Blue". Although Senator Ted Cruz retained his seat in the Senate, Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke was extremely close to giving Cruz a run for his money in this race, losing by just 3 points. This could be an indication that the political climate in Texas is slowly shifting, and Republicans should be wary of this.
THE REVENGE OF BRETT KAVANAUGH
Democrats should also take note that their disgraceful attempt to smear Justice Brett Kavanaugh's reputation during his nomination hearing completely blew up in their faces.
Democratic senators from Red states who voted against Kavanaugh's nomination have incurred the wrath of voters by losing their seats. Indiana's Joe Donnelly, North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp, Florida's Bill Nelson (see above) and Missouri's Claire McCaskill, all of whom voted against Kavanaugh lost their seats in the Senate. On the other hand, the only Democratic Senator who voted for Kavanaugh's nomination, Senator Joe Manchin III, retained his seat. This is especially after recent FBI reports stated that Julie Swetnick, one of the alleged victims, was an unreliable witness and had contradicted her testimony more than once. Also, Judy Munri-Leighton from Kentucky had claimed that Kavanaugh had raped her, but subsequently recanted her statement stating "I was angry, and I sent it out".
Voters aren't stupid, and they can see through elaborate smear campaigns and tactics that seek to destroy a good man's integrity. The Democrats paid dearly for this. Only time can tell if the Dems will learn from this incident and not resort to unscrupulous or underhanded tactics to get their way.
A MORE RADICAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
Another cause for concern is the rising tide of Radical Leftism within the Democratic party, as evidenced by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's historic win, being the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.
While there's obviously no issue with Cortez being the youngest woman elected to Congress, her views on economics and politics reek of Marxist underpinnings. She is, after all, a member of the 'Democratic Socialists of America' - a highly Leftist organization that openly espouses Marxist ideology, as stated on their website.
This is unlike the rest of the Democratic Party that generally takes a more moderate stance on economic and political issues.
If the Democratic Party is truly embracing the radical Left, prepare for more internal conflict within the party, similar to the one we saw in 2016 between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
